Average payout
$22.35
We estimate $22.35 in average prize payout for a $30 ticket.
What does this mean?
Think of a big pile of tickets: this is the prize money per ticket on average, before taxes. It doesn’t tell you what your next ticket will pay.
New York · Game #1546
VIP MILLIONS
active · Source updated Oct 5, 2026
Latest lottery dataData updated Oct 9, 2026
Start here
What to know about this ticket
Payout without the jackpot
$21.48
For a $30 ticket, the estimated average payout is $21.48 when the $5,000,000 top prize is treated as $0.
Return vs. ticket price, without the jackpot: -28.4%
What does this mean?
Big jackpots can make a ticket's average look much better even though winning one is extremely unlikely. This number shows its estimated value if the biggest prize pays $0.
Chance of Any Prize
27.9%
About 1 in 3.59 remaining tickets
Includes the top prize and prizes that only return your ticket cost. A prize does not necessarily mean a profit.
What does this mean?
This estimates the chance that a remaining ticket has any published prize. A winning ticket may only break even, so this is not your chance of making money.
Top prize
$5,000,000
1 remaining according to the lottery report.
What does this mean?
How many of the game's biggest prizes the lottery says are still unclaimed. This does not establish whether tickets are still for sale.
We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →
Original vs. current
Then vs. now
See the original numbers next to what we estimate for the tickets left.
Odds of any prize
- Original at launch
- 1 in 3.5927.9% chance · Lottery-published
- Today’s estimate
- 1 in 3.5927.9% chance · PrizeGauge estimate
0.01 percentage points higher than launch
Average prize payout
- Original at launch
- $22.25Per ticket · Worked out from original data
- Today’s estimate
- $22.35Per ticket · PrizeGauge estimate
$0.10 per ticket higher than launch
A smaller “1 in” number means a higher chance. Any prize includes prizes that only return the ticket cost. Original odds may be rounded; current values are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Compare the price and average payouts
Here’s how the ticket price compares with the average prize payout we estimate, before taxes. Your ticket could pay more, less, or nothing.
What do these numbers mean?
From the lottery
Published by the lottery.
Worked out from lottery data
Worked out from the lottery’s own numbers.
Our estimate
Our best estimate, using data and assumptions we explain.
- Average payout (EV)
- Think of a big pile of tickets: this is the prize money per ticket on average, before taxes. It doesn’t tell you what your next ticket will pay.
- Return vs. ticket price (ROI)
- How the estimated average payout stacks up against what you spend. A minus sign means the average payout is less than the ticket price, before taxes.
- Payout without the jackpot
- Big jackpots can make a ticket's average look much better even though winning one is extremely unlikely. This number shows its estimated value if the biggest prize pays $0.
- Chance of Any Prize
- This estimates the chance that a remaining ticket has any published prize. A winning ticket may only break even, so this is not your chance of making money.
- Top Prizes Left
- How many of the game's biggest prizes the lottery says are still unclaimed. This does not establish whether tickets are still for sale.
- Estimated Tickets Left
- Our estimate of how many tickets may remain. The lottery does not publish this exact number, and sold but unclaimed tickets can affect it.
- How reliable is the estimate?
- How much trust to put in the estimate. It is not your chance of winning. Unknown means we don’t have a rating.
What does this mean?
All payouts shown are before taxes. Each ticket is a gamble. Better-looking numbers don’t promise a winning ticket.
Take a closer look: prizes, calculations & sources
The numbers behind the ticket
Read the model notes →Current modeled EV
$22.35
Estimated prize payout per ticket
EV Without the Top Prize
$21.48
Average prize value after treating the biggest prize as $0
ROI Without the Top Prize
-28.4%
How that alternate average payout compares with ticket price
Original EV
$22.25
Pretax launch payout from published inputs
Modeled ROI
-25.5%
Estimated net return / ticket price
Top prizes remaining
1
Original top prizes: —
Estimated Tickets Left
5,756,229
Unsold inventory is not an official count
Analytics availability
Launch: available
Full current EV: available
Without top prize: available
Chance of any prize: available
Confidence rating not published
We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →
How this estimate was made
Launch basis: official initial structure. Inventory basis: official initial structure.
Model assumptions
- The official initial prize structure describes the same prize cohort as current remaining and paid-out observations.
- At least two tiers with 1,000 or more original prizes estimate ticket depletion, weighted by original prize count.
- Prize depletion approximates ticket depletion; sold but unclaimed prizes and claim delays can bias the estimate.
- Estimated inventory is not published available-for-sale inventory; modeled returns are not guaranteed buyer returns.
Official original prize structure
Original printed tickets: 21,927,900. These original prize counts come directly from the official game PDF.
Official original structure PDF → · Retrieved Oct 9, 2026
| Prize | Original prizes |
|---|---|
| $50 | 3,617,830 |
| $75 | 1,315,865 |
| $100 | 548,341 |
| $100 | 438,384 |
| $200 | 13,732 |
| $200 | 13,686 |
| $200 | 13,682 |
| $200 | 25,099 |
| $200 | 18,315 |
| $250 | 13,662 |
| $250 | 13,785 |
| $250 | 11,712 |
| $250 | 9,074 |
| $250 | 9,145 |
| $500 | 6,841 |
| $500 | 6,845 |
| $500 | 6,866 |
| $500 | 9,127 |
| $500 | 9,127 |
| $500 | 6,877 |
| $2,000 | 90 |
| $2,000 | 95 |
| $2,000 | 95 |
| $2,000 | 96 |
| $2,000 | 93 |
| $2,000 | 93 |
| $2,000 | 95 |
| $2,000 | 95 |
| $5,000 | 97 |
| $5,000 | 89 |
| $5,000 | 96 |
| $5,000 | 94 |
| $5,000 | 93 |
| $5,000 | 95 |
| $10,000 | 10 |
| $10,000 | 16 |
| $10,000 | 10 |
| $10,000 | 5 |
| $50,000 | 3 |
| $50,000 | 3 |
| $50,000 | 3 |
| $50,000 | 3 |
| $50,000 | 3 |
| $1,000,000 | 30 |
| $5,000,000 | 4 |
Full daily observations
Daily prize table
Remaining and paid counts are official. Original counts are backend calculations from remaining plus paid prizes. Inception odds describe the original game, not current winning odds.
Official daily source → · Retrieved Oct 9, 2026
Published update wording: 2026-10-09 07:31:16 (timezone not supplied)
| Prize | Original prizes | Paid prizes · official | Inception odds · official | Remaining prizes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5,000,000 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 5,481,975 | 1 |
| $100 | 986,725 | 730,583 | 1 in 22.22 | 256,142 |
| $75 | 1,315,865 | 969,960 | 1 in 16.66 | 345,905 |
| $50 | 3,617,830 | 2,664,990 | 1 in 6.06 | 952,840 |
| $1,000,000 | 30 | 21 | 1 in 730,930 | 9 |
| $50,000 | 15 | 11 | 1 in 1,461,860 | 4 |
| $10,000 | 41 | 30 | 1 in 534,826.83 | 11 |
| $5,000 | 564 | 419 | 1 in 38,879.26 | 145 |
| $2,000 | 752 | 543 | 1 in 29,159.44 | 209 |
| $500 | 45,683 | 33,865 | 1 in 480 | 11,818 |
| $250 | 57,378 | 42,515 | 1 in 382.17 | 14,863 |
| $200 | 84,514 | 62,690 | 1 in 259.46 | 21,824 |
Weekly report prize structure
Where the value comes from
| Prize | Remaining prizes |
|---|---|
| $1,000,000 | 9 |
| $5,000,000 | 1 |
Behind the estimates
Methodology & source
New York Lottery publishes remaining prize counts but does not generally publish the exact number of unsold tickets. PrizeGauge estimates remaining inventory using published game information and observed prize depletion.
Pretax launch EV uses verified official original counts and printed tickets where available, otherwise published inception odds. Current EV uses backend-estimated remaining inventory and complete daily cash prize tables. Unknown prize values suppress EV.
Understand our methodology →A look back
See how the numbers have changed
We keep the last update of each day, using New York time. If a day has no number, we leave a gap. We don’t fill in guesses.
Past numbers use the current calculation method. This covers the dates we have collected. 7-day change: insufficient history. 30-day change: insufficient history.
See the daily numbers in a table
| Date | Estimated average payout |
|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | — |
| Oct 8, 2026 | $22.34 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | $22.35 |
See the daily numbers in a table
| Date | Prizes remaining |
|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | — |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 26.3% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26.3% |
See the daily numbers in a table
| Date | Top prizes remaining |
|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | 1 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 1 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 1 |