Scratch-off prizes and oddsNew Mexico · Game #643
Sale status unconfirmed · Collected Oct 15, 2026, 7:17 AM MDT
Game summary
Across lots of tickets, we estimate an average of $12.23 back for each $20 ticket.
$0.61 back per $1 spent · -$7.77 after the ticket cost
<$0.01 highervs Oct 14, 2026For a $20 ticket, the estimated average payout is $12.04 when the $20,000 top prize is treated as $0.
Return vs. ticket price, without the jackpot: -39.8%
<$0.01 highervs Oct 14, 2026About 1 in 3.68 remaining tickets
Includes the top prize and prizes that only return your ticket cost. A prize does not necessarily mean a profit.
<0.01 points highervs Oct 14, 20262 still unclaimed in the lottery data.
No changevs Oct 14, 2026A prize worth more than the ticket price. Winning your ticket cost back doesn’t count as coming out ahead.
About 1 in 105,619.89 remaining tickets. This is an estimate.
Remaining prizes and tickets
Out of 99,124 prizes in the source table.
57.9% left
26 fewervs Oct 14, 2026Counts include tickets already sold whose prizes haven’t been claimed.
Out of 3 top prizes originally.
66.7% left1 no longer remaining
No changevs Oct 14, 2026From the lottery report for this game.
364,776 tickets estimated at the start.
96 fewervs Oct 14, 2026Tickets left are an estimate. Unclaimed prizes don’t tell us exactly how many tickets are still for sale.
We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →
Original vs. current
See the original numbers next to what we estimate for the tickets left.
Approximately unchanged from launch
$0.03 per ticket lower than launch
A smaller “1 in” number means a higher chance. Any prize includes prizes that only return the ticket cost. Original odds may be rounded; current values are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Here’s how the ticket price compares with the average prize payout we estimate. Your ticket could pay more, less, or nothing.
Published by the lottery.
Worked out from the lottery’s own numbers.
Our best estimate, using data and assumptions we explain.
Estimated prize payout per ticket
Average prize value after treating the biggest prize as $0
How that alternate average payout compares with ticket price
Launch payout with modeled prize valuations
Estimated net return / ticket price
A 70¢ payout per $1 spent means a 30¢ average loss
Estimated average prize payout minus the ticket price
Original top prizes: 3
An estimate, not an exact count from the lottery
Launch: available
Full current EV: available
Without top prize: available
Chance of any prize: available
Confidence rating not published
We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →
Launch basis: published inception odds. Inventory basis: inferred from prize odds.
The lottery reports don’t give us enough reliable information to show this number.
The lottery reports don’t give us enough reliable information to show this number.
The lottery reports don’t give us enough reliable information to show this number.
Uses the complete prize table and changes in prize counts.
Original prize table: complete. Remaining prize table: complete.
New Mexico labels its original and remaining prize counts as approximate; they are retained as published source observations.
These are the model’s inputs. A calculated or estimated count is separate from the literal count in the prize table.
| Prize wording | Value used | Original count used | Remaining count used |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20000 | $20,000.00Published cash value | 3Published count | 2Published count |
| $1000 | $1,000.00Published cash value | 8Published count | 4Published count |
| $500 | $500.00Published cash value | 60Published count | 34Published count |
| $200 | $200.00Published cash value | 1,813Published count | 1,042Published count |
| $100 | $100.00Published cash value | 12,156Published count | 6,952Published count |
| $50 | $50.00Published cash value | 36,473Published count | 21,027Published count |
| $20 | $20.00Published cash value | 48,611Published count | 28,340Published count |
From the official source
These are the source’s published rows. A dash means the count is not published. Calculated original totals are labeled, and any derived remaining counts appear separately in the model inputs.
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| Prize | Original prizes | Original odds · from lottery | Remaining prizes |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20000 | 3 | 1 in 121,570 | 266.7% of 3 left |
| $1000 | 8 | 1 in 45,588.75 | 450.0% of 8 left |
| $500 | 60 | 1 in 6,078.5 | 3456.7% of 60 left |
| $200 | 1,813 | 1 in 201.16 | 1,04257.5% of 1,813 left |
| $100 | 12,156 | 1 in 30 | 6,95257.2% of 12,156 left |
| $50 | 36,473 | 1 in 10 | 21,02757.7% of 36,473 left |
| $20 | 48,611 | 1 in 7.5 | 28,34058.3% of 48,611 left |
About the estimates
Each lottery publishes different information. We use the available game data and stated assumptions to estimate average payouts and tickets left. An unclaimed prize count is not a count of tickets still for sale.
Published prize observations stay separate from estimates. The model uses this game's reported coverage, ticket inventory and count assumptions; unavailable values retain their source explanations.
How we work it out →Game history
We keep the last update of each day, using Mountain Time. If a day has no number, we leave a gap. We don’t fill in guesses.
Past numbers include calculations from archived prize reports. This covers the dates we have collected. 7-day change: insufficient history. 30-day change: insufficient history.
Extra decimals show estimate changes smaller than 1¢. We calculate daily changes before rounding.
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| Date | Estimated average payout | Change from previous day |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | $12.2262 | No daily comparison |
| Oct 15, 2026 | $12.2266 | $0.0004 higher compared with Oct 14, 2026 |
57,401 prizes left99,124 total · 57.9% left · Oct 15, 2026
26 fewervs Oct 14, 2026Swipe across the chart →
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| Date | Prizes remaining | Unclaimed count | Total prizes | Change from previous day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 57.9% | 57,427 | 99,124 | No daily comparison |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 57.9% | 57,401 | 99,124 | 26 fewer compared with Oct 14, 2026 |
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| Date | Top prizes remaining | Change from previous day |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2 | No daily comparison |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2 | No change compared with Oct 14, 2026 |
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| Date | Estimated tickets left | Change from previous day |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 211,336 | No daily comparison |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 211,240 | 96 fewer compared with Oct 14, 2026 |