Michigan · Game #654

Win $100, $200 or $500

$20per ticket

Sale status unconfirmed · Collected Oct 15, 2026, 9:17 AM EDT

Latest lottery dataData updated Oct 15, 2026

Game summary

What to know about this ticket

Take a closer look ↓

Estimate went upEstimate went downFewer prizesCount changed

Our estimate

Average payout

$15.43

Across lots of tickets, we estimate an average of $15.43 back for each $20 ticket.

$0.77 back per $1 spent · -$4.57 after the ticket cost

<$0.01 highervs Oct 14, 2026

What does this mean?

Think of a big pile of tickets: this is the prize money per ticket on average. It doesn’t tell you what your next ticket will pay.

Our estimate

Payout without the jackpot

$14.13

For a $20 ticket, the estimated average payout is $14.13 when the $500 top prize is treated as $0.

Return vs. ticket price, without the jackpot: -29.3%

<$0.01 highervs Oct 14, 2026

What does this mean?

Big jackpots can make a ticket's average look much better even though winning one is extremely unlikely. This number shows its estimated value if the biggest prize pays $0.

Our estimate

Chance of Any Prize

12.3%

About 1 in 8.11 remaining tickets

Includes the top prize and prizes that only return your ticket cost. A prize does not necessarily mean a profit.

No changevs Oct 14, 2026

What does this mean?

This estimates the chance that a remaining ticket has any published prize. A winning ticket may only break even, so this is not your chance of making money.

From the lottery

Top prize

$500

3,315 still unclaimed in the lottery data.

No changevs Oct 14, 2026

What does this mean?

How many of the game's biggest prizes the lottery says are still unclaimed. This does not establish whether tickets are still for sale.

Our estimate

Chance of coming out ahead

12.3%

A prize worth more than the ticket price. Winning your ticket cost back doesn’t count as coming out ahead.

Our estimate

Chance of the top prize

0.3%

About 1 in 385.61 remaining tickets. This is an estimate.

Remaining prizes and tickets

What’s left in this game

See every prize amount ↓

Worked out from lottery data

Unclaimed prizes

157,621

Out of 1,087,042 prizes in the source table.

14.5% left

1 fewervs Oct 14, 2026

Counts include tickets already sold whose prizes haven’t been claimed.

From the lottery

Top prizes left

3,315

Out of 23,443 top prizes originally.

14.1% left20,128 no longer remaining

No changevs Oct 14, 2026

From the lottery report for this game.

Our estimate

Estimated tickets left

1,278,306

8,815,911 tickets estimated at the start.

8 fewervs Oct 14, 2026

Tickets left are an estimate. Unclaimed prizes don’t tell us exactly how many tickets are still for sale.

First on sale: Jul 1, 2024

We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →

Original vs. current

Original and current numbers

See the original numbers next to what we estimate for the tickets left.

Odds of any prize

Original at launch: 1 in 8.1112.3% chance · Lottery-published
Latest estimate: 1 in 8.1112.3% chance · PrizeGauge estimate

Unchanged from launch

Average prize payout

Original at launch: $15.46Per ticket · Estimate using original data
Latest estimate: $15.43Per ticket · PrizeGauge estimate

$0.03 per ticket lower than launch

A smaller “1 in” number means a higher chance. Any prize includes prizes that only return the ticket cost. Original odds may be rounded; current values are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Compare the price and average payouts

Here’s how the ticket price compares with the average prize payout we estimate. Your ticket could pay more, less, or nothing.

Ticket costs: $20.00
Estimated average payout: $15.43
Without the top prize: $14.13

What do these numbers mean?

From the lottery

Published by the lottery.

Worked out from lottery data

Worked out from the lottery’s own numbers.

Our estimate

Our best estimate, using data and assumptions we explain.

Average payout: Think of a big pile of tickets: this is the prize money per ticket on average. It doesn’t tell you what your next ticket will pay.
Return vs. ticket price: How the estimated average payout stacks up against what you spend. A minus sign means the average payout is less than the ticket price.
Payout without the jackpot: Big jackpots can make a ticket's average look much better even though winning one is extremely unlikely. This number shows its estimated value if the biggest prize pays $0.
Chance of Any Prize: This estimates the chance that a remaining ticket has any published prize. A winning ticket may only break even, so this is not your chance of making money.
Top Prizes Left: How many of the game's biggest prizes the lottery says are still unclaimed. This does not establish whether tickets are still for sale.
Estimated Tickets Left: Our estimate of how many tickets may remain. The lottery does not publish this exact number, and sold but unclaimed tickets can affect it.
How reliable is the estimate?: How much trust to put in the estimate. It is not your chance of winning. Unknown means we don’t have a rating.

What does this mean?

Each ticket is a gamble. Better-looking numbers don’t promise a winning ticket.

Take a closer look: prizes, calculations & sources

The numbers behind the ticket

How we work it out →

Our estimate

Estimated average payout today

$15.43

Estimated prize payout per ticket

Our estimate

EV Without the Top Prize

$14.13

Average prize value after treating the biggest prize as $0

Our estimate

ROI Without the Top Prize

-29.3%

How that alternate average payout compares with ticket price

Our estimate

Original EV

$15.46

Launch payout with modeled prize valuations

Our estimate

Modeled ROI

-22.9%

Estimated net return / ticket price

Our estimate

Average payout per $1 spent

$0.77

A 70¢ payout per $1 spent means a 30¢ average loss

Our estimate

Average return after the ticket cost

-$4.57

Estimated average prize payout minus the ticket price

From the lottery

Top prizes remaining

3,315

Original top prizes: 23,443

Our estimate

Estimated Tickets Left

1,278,306

An estimate, not an exact count from the lottery

Our estimate

Analytics availability

Launch: available

Full current EV: available

Without top prize: available

Chance of any prize: available

Confidence rating not published

We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →

How this estimate was made

Launch basis: published inception odds. Inventory basis: inferred from prize odds.

The lottery reports don’t give us enough reliable information to show this number.

Model assumptions

The complete original winning-prize counts and published overall odds describe one unchanged print cohort.
At least two tiers with 500 or more original prizes estimate remaining ticket inventory, weighted by original prize count; prize claims can lag ticket sales.

What goes into this estimate

Uses the complete prize table and changes in prize counts.

Original prize table: complete. Remaining prize table: complete.

See calculated counts and prize-value assumptions

These are the model’s inputs. A calculated or estimated count is separate from the literal count in the prize table.

Count and value inputs considered by the model
Prize wording	Value used	Original count used	Remaining count used
$100	$100.00Published cash value	881,370Published count	127,962Published count
$200	$200.00Published cash value	182,229Published count	26,344Published count
$500	$500.00Published cash value	23,443Published count	3,315Published count

From the official source

The lottery’s prize table

Original overall odds: 1 in 8.11

These are the source’s published rows. A dash means the count is not published. Calculated original totals are labeled, and any derived remaining counts appear separately in the model inputs.

Swipe to see all columns →

Prize amounts and counts from this report. Current odds and average payout contributions, where shown, are estimates.
Prize	Original prizes	Remaining prizes
$100 Count sources & details Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 15, 2026, 1:17 PM UTC Response fingerprint `be53c6825b5d9ef4c80cb1b2a4ecf150a46b2df887c1a541dde5cc62fe87ba17`	881,370	127,96214.5% of 881,370 left
$200 Count sources & details Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 15, 2026, 1:17 PM UTC Response fingerprint `be53c6825b5d9ef4c80cb1b2a4ecf150a46b2df887c1a541dde5cc62fe87ba17`	182,229	26,34414.5% of 182,229 left
$500 Count sources & details Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 15, 2026, 1:17 PM UTC Response fingerprint `be53c6825b5d9ef4c80cb1b2a4ecf150a46b2df887c1a541dde5cc62fe87ba17`	23,443	3,31514.1% of 23,443 left

About the estimates

Methodology & source

Each lottery publishes different information. We use the available game data and stated assumptions to estimate average payouts and tickets left. An unclaimed prize count is not a count of tickets still for sale.

Published prize observations stay separate from estimates. The model uses this game's reported coverage, ticket inventory and count assumptions; unavailable values retain their source explanations.

How we work it out →

Game history

See how the numbers have changed

A gap means we don’t have a number

We keep the last update of each day, using Eastern Time. If a day has no number, we leave a gap. We don’t fill in guesses.

Past numbers include calculations from archived prize reports. This covers the dates we have collected. 7-day change: insufficient history. 30-day change: insufficient history.

Estimated average payout Our estimate · dollars per ticket

$0.000020 highervs Oct 14, 2026

Extra decimals show estimate changes smaller than 1¢. We calculate daily changes before rounding.

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See the daily numbers in a table

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Estimated average payout observations
Date	Estimated average payout	Change from previous day
Oct 14, 2026	$15.428599	No daily comparison
Oct 15, 2026	$15.428618	$0.000020 higher compared with Oct 14, 2026

Prizes remaining From the daily prize table · count and share left

157,621 prizes left1,087,042 total · 14.5% left · Oct 15, 2026

1 fewervs Oct 14, 2026

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See the daily numbers in a table

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Prizes remaining observations
Date	Prizes remaining	Unclaimed count	Total prizes	Change from previous day
Oct 14, 2026	14.5%	157,622	1,087,042	No daily comparison
Oct 15, 2026	14.5%	157,621	1,087,042	1 fewer compared with Oct 14, 2026

Top prizes remaining From the lottery · published count

No changevs Oct 14, 2026

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See the daily numbers in a table

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Top prizes remaining observations
Date	Top prizes remaining	Change from previous day
Oct 14, 2026	3,315	No daily comparison
Oct 15, 2026	3,315	No change compared with Oct 14, 2026

Estimated tickets left Our estimate · ticket count

8 fewervs Oct 14, 2026

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See the daily numbers in a table

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Estimated tickets left observations
Date	Estimated tickets left	Change from previous day
Oct 14, 2026	1,278,314	No daily comparison
Oct 15, 2026	1,278,306	8 fewer compared with Oct 14, 2026