National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation scratch-off ticket

Kentucky · Game #161

National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation

$5per ticket

Sale status unknown · Lottery report Oct 21, 2026 · Lottery game update Oct 21, 2026

The source does not confirm that tickets are currently on sale. Unclaimed prizes do not establish ticket availability.

Official lottery data Top prizes unclaimed: 3

Published site dataSite data published Oct 23, 2026

Game summary

What to know about this ticket

Take a closer look ↓

Estimate confidence: Unknown — a reliability rating, not your chance of winning.

Estimate went upEstimate went downFewer prizesCount changed
PrizeGauge estimate

Estimated average payout

$3.50

Across lots of tickets, we estimate an average of $3.50 back for each $5 ticket.

$0.70 back per $1 spent · -$1.50 after the ticket cost

No changevs Oct 22, 2026
What does this mean?
Think of a big pile of tickets: this is the prize money per ticket on average. It doesn’t tell you what your next ticket will pay.
PrizeGauge estimate

Return compared with ticket price

-30.0%

A minus sign means the estimated average payout is below the ticket cost. It does not predict the result of one ticket.

PrizeGauge estimate

Chance of Any Prize

28.0%

About 1 in 3.57 remaining tickets

Includes the top prize and prizes that only return your ticket cost. A prize does not necessarily mean a profit.

No changevs Oct 22, 2026
What does this mean?
This estimates the chance that a remaining ticket has any published prize. A winning ticket may only break even, so this is not your chance of making money.
PrizeGauge estimate

Chance of coming out ahead

14.0%

Estimated chance of a prize worth more than the ticket price. Getting your ticket cost back does not count.

PrizeGauge estimate

Payout without the jackpot

$3.36

For a $5 ticket, the estimated average payout is $3.36 when the $100,000 top prize is treated as $0.

Return vs. ticket price, without the jackpot: -32.9%

No changevs Oct 22, 2026
What does this mean?
Big jackpots can make a ticket's average look much better even though winning one is extremely unlikely. This number shows its estimated value if the biggest prize pays $0.
Official lottery data

Top prize

$100,000

3 still unclaimed in the lottery data.

No changevs Oct 22, 2026
What does this mean?
How many of the game's biggest prizes the lottery says are still unclaimed. This does not establish whether tickets are still for sale.
PrizeGauge estimate

Chance of the top prize

<0.1%

About 1 in 693,338.03 remaining tickets. This is an estimate.

Remaining prizes and tickets

What’s left in this game

See every prize amount ↓
Calculated from lottery data

Unclaimed prizes

582,637No changevs Oct 22, 2026

Counts include tickets already sold whose prizes haven’t been claimed.

Official lottery data

Top prizes left

3No changevs Oct 22, 2026

From the lottery report for this game.

PrizeGauge estimate

Estimated tickets left

2,080,014No changevs Oct 22, 2026

Tickets left are an estimate. Unclaimed prizes don’t tell us exactly how many tickets are still for sale.

First on sale
Oct 22, 2026

We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →

Original vs. current

Original and current numbers

See the original numbers next to what we estimate for the tickets left.

How we work out the original chance of coming out ahead

We count only original prizes worth more than the ticket price. Getting your money back does not count.

An original ticket count is not available for this calculation.

Original records: Source 1

Odds of any prize

Original at launch
1 in 3.5728.0% chance · Lottery-published
Latest estimate
1 in 3.5728.0% chance · PrizeGauge estimate

Unchanged from launch

Average prize payout

Original at launch
UnavailablePer ticket · Worked out from original data
Latest estimate
$3.50Per ticket · PrizeGauge estimate

Change unavailable — both values are needed.

Return compared with ticket price

Original at launch
UnavailableOriginal return not published
Latest estimate
-30.0%PrizeGauge estimate

Change unavailable — both values are needed.

Chance of coming out ahead

Original at launch
UnavailableThe full original prize list is not available for this game.
Latest estimate
14.0%PrizeGauge estimate · excludes break-even prizes

Change unavailable — both values are needed.

Top prizes

Original at launch
—Published original count
Latest estimate
3Published unclaimed count · may include sold tickets

Counts describe prizes, not the chance of winning.

A smaller “1 in” number means a higher chance. Any prize includes prizes that only return the ticket cost. Original odds may be rounded; current values are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Compare the price and average payouts

Here’s how the ticket price compares with the average prize payout we estimate. Your ticket could pay more, less, or nothing.

Ticket costs
$5.00
Estimated average payout
$3.50
Without the top prize
$3.36
What do these numbers mean?
Official lottery data

Published by the lottery.

Calculated from lottery data

Worked out from the lottery’s own numbers.

PrizeGauge estimate

Our best estimate, using data and assumptions we explain.

Average payout
Think of a big pile of tickets: this is the prize money per ticket on average. It doesn’t tell you what your next ticket will pay.
Return vs. ticket price
How the estimated average payout stacks up against what you spend. A minus sign means the average payout is less than the ticket price.
Payout without the jackpot
Big jackpots can make a ticket's average look much better even though winning one is extremely unlikely. This number shows its estimated value if the biggest prize pays $0.
Chance of Any Prize
This estimates the chance that a remaining ticket has any published prize. A winning ticket may only break even, so this is not your chance of making money.
Chance of coming out ahead
The estimated chance of a prize worth more than the ticket price. Getting your ticket cost back does not count.
Top Prizes Left
How many of the game's biggest prizes the lottery says are still unclaimed. This does not establish whether tickets are still for sale.
Estimated Tickets Left
Our estimate of how many tickets may remain. The lottery does not publish this exact number, and sold but unclaimed tickets can affect it.
How reliable is the estimate?
How much trust to put in the estimate. It is not your chance of winning. Unknown means we don’t have a rating.
What does this mean?
Each ticket is a gamble. Better-looking numbers don’t promise a winning ticket.

Prize-by-prize estimates

Estimated odds for each prize

The chance of each prize for the tickets estimated to remain. These are estimates, not the lottery’s original odds.

Swipe to see odds and chances →

Estimated odds and prize counts for National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation
PrizeEstimated oddsPrizes leftChance
$100,0001 in 693,338.0330.00014%
$1,0001 in 37,143.11560.00269%
$5001 in 43,333.63480.00231%
$2001 in 3,946.95270.02534%
$1001 in 415.175,0100.24086%
$501 in 56.9836,5031.75494%
$201 in 100.0720,7850.99927%
$151 in 33.3862,3122.99575%
$101 in 12.51166,2867.99447%
$51 in 7.15291,10713.99543%

These odds use estimated tickets left. Some prize counts are estimated too. A winning ticket may already have been sold but not claimed. Swipe the table to see every column on a phone.

Unclaimed prizes by prize amount

These bars show the share of original prizes still unclaimed. They are not your chance of winning. Some unclaimed prizes may already be on sold tickets.

$100,000

Official lottery data

3 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$1,000

Official lottery data

56 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$500

Official lottery data

48 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$200

Official lottery data

527 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$100

Official lottery data

5,010 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$50

Official lottery data

36,503 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$20

Official lottery data

20,785 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$15

Official lottery data

62,312 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

Show all 10 prize amounts

$10

Official lottery data

166,286 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

$5

Official lottery data

291,107 unclaimed of — originally

Remaining share unavailable: matching original and current counts are needed.

Take a closer look: prizes, calculations & sources

The numbers behind the ticket

How we work it out →
PrizeGauge estimate

Estimated average payout today

$3.50

Estimated prize payout per ticket

PrizeGauge estimate

EV Without the Top Prize

$3.36

Average prize value after treating the biggest prize as $0

PrizeGauge estimate

ROI Without the Top Prize

-32.9%

How that alternate average payout compares with ticket price

Calculated from lottery data

Original EV

Unavailable

Launch payout from published inputs

PrizeGauge estimate

Modeled ROI

-30.0%

Estimated net return / ticket price

PrizeGauge estimate

Average payout per $1 spent

$0.70

A 70¢ payout per $1 spent means a 30¢ average loss

PrizeGauge estimate

Average return after the ticket cost

-$1.50

Estimated average prize payout minus the ticket price

Official lottery data

Top prizes remaining

3

Original top prizes: —

PrizeGauge estimate

Estimated Tickets Left

2,080,014

An estimate, not an exact count from the lottery

PrizeGauge estimate

Analytics availability

Launch: insufficient data

Full current EV: available

Without top prize: available

Chance of any prize: available

Confidence rating not published

We use lottery data to estimate average payouts and tickets left. These are estimates, not promises about your next ticket. See how we work it out →

How this estimate was made

Launch basis: unavailable. Inventory basis: inferred from prize odds.

The lottery reports don’t give us enough reliable information to show this number.

The lottery reports don’t give us enough reliable information to show this number.

Model assumptions
  • The chance of any prize remains equal to the published launch overall odds. Remaining tickets are estimated as all unclaimed winning prizes times those odds; this assumption cannot detect a change in the overall win rate.

What goes into this estimate

Uses remaining prizes and assumes the original winning rate still applies.

Original prize table: partial or unavailable. Remaining prize table: complete.

Kentucky publishes remaining prizes but no original prize counts. Current ticket inventory is an estimate, not an observed count.

Sale availability comes from the official Kentucky Available Scratch-Off Games listing; published sale and claim dates take precedence.

See calculated counts and prize-value assumptions

These are the model’s inputs. A calculated or estimated count is separate from the literal count in the prize table.

Count and value inputs considered by the model
Prize wordingValue usedOriginal count usedRemaining count used
$100,000$100,000.00Published cash value—Unavailable3Published count
$1,000$1,000.00Published cash value—Unavailable56Published count
$500$500.00Published cash value—Unavailable48Published count
$200$200.00Published cash value—Unavailable527Published count
$100$100.00Published cash value—Unavailable5,010Published count
$50$50.00Published cash value—Unavailable36,503Published count
$20$20.00Published cash value—Unavailable20,785Published count
$15$15.00Published cash value—Unavailable62,312Published count
$10$10.00Published cash value—Unavailable166,286Published count
$5$5.00Published cash value—Unavailable291,107Published count

From the official source

The lottery’s prize table

Original overall odds: 1 in 3.57

These are the source’s retained rows. A dash means the count is unavailable or the sources disagree. Calculated original totals are labeled, and any derived remaining counts appear separately in the model inputs.

Swipe to see all columns →

Prize amounts and counts from this report. Current odds and average payout contributions, where shown, are estimates.
PrizeOriginal prizesRemaining prizes
$100,000
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—3
$1,000
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—56
$500
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—48
$200
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—527
$100
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—5,010
$50
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—36,503
$20
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—20,785
$15
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—62,312
$10
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—166,286
$5
Count sources & details
Prize row source →Retrieved Oct 23, 2026, 5:02 AM UTC
Response fingerprint6712a79dae633d21d6f01d2e709cfd7af0134c5f836a3ff8cf41dfd958d67057
—291,107

About the estimates

Methodology & source

Each lottery publishes different information. We use the available game data and stated assumptions to estimate average payouts and tickets left. An unclaimed prize count is not a count of tickets still for sale.

Published prize observations stay separate from estimates. The model uses this game's reported coverage, ticket inventory and count assumptions; unavailable values retain their source explanations.

How we work it out →

Game history

See how the numbers have changed

A gap means we don’t have a number

We keep the last update of each day, using Eastern Time. If a day has no number, we leave a gap. We don’t fill in guesses.

Past numbers preserve the estimates published on each day. This covers the dates we have collected. 7-day change: insufficient history. 30-day change: insufficient history.

Periods end on the latest recorded day, which may be earlier than today.

Estimated average payout PrizeGauge estimate · dollars per ticket
No changevs Oct 22, 2026

Swipe across the chart →

$3.30$3.50$3.70Oct 22, 2026: $3.50 · PrizeGauge estimateOct 23, 2026: $3.50 · PrizeGauge estimateOct 22, 2026Oct 23, 2026
See the daily numbers in a table

Swipe to see all columns →

Estimated average payout observations
DateEstimated average payoutChange from previous day
Oct 22, 2026$3.50No daily comparison
Oct 23, 2026$3.50No change compared with Oct 22, 2026

Recent changes in the records

Dates show when a change was observed, not when a ticket was sold or a prize claimed.

No meaningful, comparable daily changes are available yet.